Chaos Rising dropped May 22nd and one week in, the dust is starting to settle. If you panic-bought day one, you overpaid. If you waited even 48 hours, you already won. Ascended Heroes may be the outlier to this rule, but for regular sets, it's best to wait. Here's the full breakdown — singles and sealed, where things landed, and what to do next.
The Chase Tier
The #1 card in the set — and per usual, it's beating the gold Mega Hyper Rare Mega Greninja. The special illustration rare art carried it past the gold. Day-one peak was $594. Settled inside 48 hours. I personally can see this card dipping to $350-$375 in the next month.
Pre-release JP tracking had this at ~$593 before English packs even hit shelves. It didn't hold — the SIR ate its lunch. Still the second most expensive pull in the set. Want both Greninja cards? You're looking at ~$900 combined right now. Best to play the patient game here.
The SIR Cluster
Pre-release JP estimates had all six SIRs in the $14–$31 range. Every single one came in 2–4x higher when English packs opened. They've been softening since and still have room to drop.
Cinccino with a bit of a surprise $100 valuation. The artwork of Cinccino bouncing on a pile of pillows became the cutesy pull of the set. Cleared $100 on day one and hasn't moved much since.
All-time high sale of $120 on opening weekend. Softening steadily since. More downward pressure likely over the next 30 days. In my opinion, this is the second best artwork in the set. The texturing really helps it stand out too.
Pairs thematically with Mega Floette ex SIR — both tell the same Legends: Z-A story. Buy them together for ~$160 if you want the full display. If you are as big of a fan of Legends ZA as I am, this is a great card to pick up, along with other Illustration Rares taking places in Kalos City.
Held relatively stable. The AZ/Floette storyline pairing keeps collector attention on both together more than either card individually.
Bottom of the SIR ladder. Full art trainers usually hold on the lower end of the SIR pool, but this one has cooled the most. Most accessible entry into the secret rare tier. The Gym Leader feels out of place in this set and I think that's showing in the vard value.
Budget Chase Cards
The ETB's featured card. Way more pullable than the SIR or MHR. Most recent sales landing around $26. Your entry point for Mega Greninja ex without spending $500.
Peaked at $54 during pre-purchase speculation before English packs were out. Cut in half since. The real play is the connected-art triptych: Froakie (#88), Frogadier (#89), and Greninja (#99) line up as one display piece. ~$60 raw for both the Froakie and Frogadier right now.
Barely moved all week. Full art version of a functional Item card. The standard uncommon with near-identical art is $0.75 — this is $25. A great card to move now if you are not in the competitive TCG space.
Sealed Product
Booster boxes were running their usual 50% increase. They've already started correcting — some are coming in at at 40% increase right now, which is still expected. In my experience, the cheapest booster boxes get are opening weekend since they have a very low prduction volume and we don't know when we are going to see them again.
The Pokemon Center ETB is the only way to get the PC-stamped Fennekin promo. Secondary market premium is currently $10–$15 over MSRP — reasonable for an exclusive.
The Numbers
Decide your Mega Greninja position first — SIR only, MHR only, both, or neither. That single decision determines whether you're building a $350 set or a $1,500 one. Everything else is affordable to start your master set.
